Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

[Jimswife]

As per title really .... My husband is now at 2 years post tumor removal , I've heard 80 percent of reccurances happen within 2 years .... As he has reached 2 years have his odds of beating this gone up a little ? ....I'm well aware that a reccurance can happen anytime but in general is his outlook better now ? Thanks to anyone who can advise . So grateful to have reached this milestone cancer free .

[janderson]

That is what I was told by my first oncologist that most recurrences happen within the first 2 years. I have had 2 recurrences. One happened after 1 1/2 years. The second one happened 4 years after the first recurrence so that is 50% in my case.

[lydia123]

More than a little. From what we have read, the probability of a recurrence for Stage III increases for two years, with the modal year of recurrence in year 2. Thereafter, the rate of recurrence decreases rather dramatically (with most recurrences taking place before the end of the third year out) until at 5 years it approaches population rates.

As my husband's doctor put it: at 3 years you have a party. At 5 years you rent a tent.

[Jimswife]

Husband just said he's seen somewhere that post two year survival goes up to 89.9 percent at 5 years .... As opposed to the 70 percent we were originally told at the beginning ....time will tell x

[Oneeyeddog]

My oncologist quoted me the same 2 years 80 percent stat. Like everything with cancer, you don't want to jinx it by over-celebrating, but statistically as least getting to two years seems to be a really great milestone.

[robinkaye]

After two years every year you remain NED increases your chances of staying that way.
You aren't completely over the hump, but two years NED puts you a lot closer...feel good and enjoy. It's probably
time to quit holding your breath and relax a little. The closer my husband gets to two years the better I feel. I know it can still strike again after two years, not delusional, but the odds are increasingly better that it won't.

[michelle c]

Yes and yes! My onc told me this. I try and avoid stats on the Internet. I was obsessed with doing this when I was first diagnosed and it did me more harm than good All the best to Jim, may he remain NED!

[weisssoccermom]

Well, you're partially correct but.....

The statistics show that IF a person is going to have a recurrence, then it tends to happen in the first two years. And yes, again IF a recurrence is going to occur, statistics show that 80% of them recur in the first two years. After that, stats show that another 10% occur between year 2-3 with another 5% occurring in year 4 with the remainder being insignificant. That does not, however, correlate with or to survival statistics - they are two entirely different things and must be kept separate.

In addition, a big hurdle with all these statistics is this. Generally, the survival statistics 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the FIRST treatment - be that surgery, radiation or chemotherapy. The recurrence 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the LAST treatment. Again, two different statistics with different parameters.
Jaynee

[kiwiinoz]

Clear concise response as always Jaynee, appreciate it very much and it certainly does make me reconsider a few mental positions I had

[Oneeyeddog]

Generally, the survival statistics 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the FIRST treatment - be that surgery, radiation or chemotherapy. The recurrence 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the LAST treatment. Again, two different statistics with different parameters.

Thanks for clarifying this point. I had always wondered about this.

[pog451]

That does not, however, correlate with or to survival statistics - they are two entirely different things and must be kept separate.

Well, you're partially correct but.....

Obviously, some of the people that don't make it are some of the people who have an occurrence (no-one dies of NED) so there *is* a correlation, its just a more complicated one and Im not at all sure there are numbers easily available for "was NED, had a recurrence, survived anyway".

As always, never take stats at face value without understanding the underlying statements.

[radnyc]

My understanding is that there are no real hard studies showing on when exactly the countdown clock starts. Some think is from the time of DX, others from the time of the first NED scan or from the end of the last treatment. It seems logical that if one has continuing CLEAR scans over one, two or three years, the recurrence risk significantly decreases. Also, as there is no real agreement on whether adjuvant chemotherapy adds anything to survival, specially in early stages, a lot of people who are long-term NED and cured, were so from the moment the tumor was removed. The longer one is NED and off any treatment the chances of recurrence decrease, statistically at 5 yrs NED, one's chance having cancer, new or recurrent, matches that of the general population.

[MrPleistocene]

My belief, totally unscientific, is that every day I make it through, increases the chance I'll make it through tomorrow.

Every night I put my son to bed with a song we wrote together:

A brand new day
Tomorrow's gonna be a brand new day
The rain may fall or come what may
Tomorrow's gonna be a brand new day

Congratulations to both of you, and I hope each day brings more peace than the last.

[janderson]

My belief, totally unscientific, is that every day I make it through, increases the chance I'll make it through tomorrow.

Every night I put my son to bed with a song we wrote together:

A brand new day
Tomorrow's gonna be a brand new day
The rain may fall or come what may
Tomorrow's gonna be a brand new day

Congratulations to both of you, and I hope each day brings more peace than the last.

That is so true. The way I look at it every day I wake up is another victory and a day closer to a breakthrough treatment being discovered and approved.

[Bob Bones]

Truth is you are never out of the woods. Previous posts sadly confirm this