Hi. I have an appointment with my oncologist tomorrow. I wanted to get some clarification from him about the likelihood of colon cancer recurrence. I thought I had read on this forum that approximately 80 percent of recurrences happen within the first two years after resection surgery. There was some debate, however, as to whether the two year clock started to tick at the time of resection or if it started at the time of completing chemotherapy.
I did some research and I came across the following journal article and I have included the relevant section below. If I am reading this correctly, and if I am not please tell me, we were being overly optimistic by thinking that if we made it to two years without recurrence, our chances of not having a recurrence improved significantly. It looks like this journal article is saying that approximately 80 percent of recurrences happen within the first three years after resection surgery. Has anyone come across research literature supporting the position that approximately 80 percent of recurrences happen within the first two years after resection surgery. If so, please let me know.
A recently reported analysis of individual patient data from large adjuvant colon cancer randomised trials including >20 000 patients indicated that 82% of stage III and 74% of stage II colon cancer recurrences are diagnosed within the first 3 years after primary cancer resection [See footnote 49]. R. Labianca, Early colon cancer: ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines
for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up, Annals of Oncology 24 (Supplement 6): vi64–vi72 at vi70, 2013.
Footnote 49. Sargent DJ, Patiyil S, Yothers G et al. Endpoints for colon cancer adjuvant trials: observations and recommendations based on individual patient data from 20,898 patients enrolled onto 18 randomized trials from the ACCENT group. J Clin Oncol 2007; 29: 4569–4574.
male-age 44 at diagnosis
8/14-CT scan,no mets
9/14-left colectomy,CEA 2.2 before surgery
3 cm tumor in dscnding colon
7/23 pos LNs
low grade MSI stable
1/15-CT & PET scan and sigmdoscopy- no mets
9/15- clnscopy- 3 polyps removed
10/15- CT scan, NED
10/16- CT scan, NED, CEA 1.6
10/17- clnscopy- 4 polyps removed, CT scan NED, CEA 1.8
10/14 1.9; 4/15 2.8; 5/15 2.4; 9/15 2.8; 12/15 3.1; 1/16 3.0; 4/16 2.5; 7/16 2.5; 10/16 1.6; 1/17 1.9