Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

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Jimswife
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Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Jimswife » Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:43 pm

Thing is bob none of us are immune from this , cancer survivor or no cancer previously , can sneak up on any on of us at any point in our lives so I'm not asking are we out of the woods ... Suppose we never will be like you said but as far as I'm aware the odds of staying cancer free seem to increase with each passing day week month year ... Going off what I've heard / read ... But like you said proven by posts on here recurrence can happen anytime in some individuals
Victoria , Wife to Jim age 43 dx oct 2011
Stage 3 cc with 2 out of 21 positive lymph nodes
Folfox starts nov 11-may 12
All scans and bloods since surgery confirm no evidence of disease
Hoping to stay ned forever .... Fingers crossed !!!!!!!

annalexandria
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Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby annalexandria » Fri Oct 18, 2013 7:21 pm

Might as well live as if the odd will be in your favor. May or not be true in the long run, but it sure makes daily life a little more pleasant.
Mom, librarian
Dx age 43, Sept. '09, Stage IV Carcinosarcoma of the colon
5 surgeries, 2009-2011:
colon/sm. bowel res., node removal, peritoneum, hysterectomy
FOLFOX/Avastin Feb.'10-Aug '10
Carbo-Taxol Dec. '10-Feb. 2011
NED since Dec. 2011.

justin case
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Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby justin case » Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:35 pm

I'm approaching 2 years. I'm on a don't ask don't tell protocol :shock:
Regards,
Michael
7/11 diagnosed Stage 2 colon and rectal cancer
chemo/rad
lar/temp ilio
Reversal & port removal
21 round of chemo Folfox 9tx, 5fu 12 tx
Last treatment July 2012

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Bussman
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Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Bussman » Sat Oct 19, 2013 7:46 am

weisssoccermom wrote:Well, you're partially correct but.....

The statistics show that IF a person is going to have a recurrence, then it tends to happen in the first two years. And yes, again IF a recurrence is going to occur, statistics show that 80% of them recur in the first two years. After that, stats show that another 10% occur between year 2-3 with another 5% occurring in year 4 with the remainder being insignificant. That does not, however, correlate with or to survival statistics - they are two entirely different things and must be kept separate.

In addition, a big hurdle with all these statistics is this. Generally, the survival statistics 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the FIRST treatment - be that surgery, radiation or chemotherapy. The recurrence 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the LAST treatment. Again, two different statistics with different parameters.
Jaynee


Well, your partially correct, but... :lol:

I just looked at several journal articles on studies of time to recurrence. They all start the clock after surgery, not last treatment. E.g., the recurrence graphs show recurrence "time from surgery", or talk about disease free survival after resection. One was a randomized study to look at time to recurrence for surgery only vs. surgery plus chemo, and the clock started ticking after randomization. This makes sense, because post surgery treatment is a huge variable in terms of time and what is done that could affect time to recurrence. The resection itself is the only stable milestone to start measuring time to recurrence, with type of treatment after surgery being a variable that could impact it.

So anybody that was bummed out because they thought they suddenly lost 6 months off their recurrence clock, you now have it back. :D

I'm a stage 3er who is 2 yrs 8 mo. Post surgery. Am hoping to get to 3 yrs NED as most of the risk of recurrence will be burned off the clock by then.

Bussman
1/21/11 dx CC @ 53
2/09/11 rt colon resect
0/18 LN; 4 tumor dep.
stage IIIB T4a N1c M0
3/11- 8/11 - 12 FOLFOX tx
6/11, 12/11 PET/CT scans- clean
1/12 follow-up scope - clean
6/12, 12/12,6/13 PET/CT scans- clean
NED

radnyc
Posts: 439
Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2010 6:32 pm

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby radnyc » Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:35 am

Hey Bussman, that's what my onc said, and that's the clock I'm riding. Here's pulling for your 3 year mark!
Al
DX Jan '10, at 47
Feb - colon resection - 2/17 nodes
April - liver mets - Stage 4
3 months Folfox chemotherapy
August '10 liver resection and HAI pump
7 months chemo FUDR HAI and Folfiri systemic
NED since August 2010
Last treatment April '11
HAI Pump removed Dec '15

weisssoccermom
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Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby weisssoccermom » Sat Oct 19, 2013 4:48 pm

From the ACS

"When Cancer Comes Back:
Cancer Recurrence
You have completed your cancer treatment and are ready to move on with your life. You’ve gotten
used to seeing your health care team less often and things are getting back to normal. Maybe you
feel as if you are ready to go back to work full time, or become a more active member of your
household. Or, you may still feel emotionally exhausted and tired from the treatments you had.
Maybe you feel tired in body and spirit and need a long rest. You think you’ve just survived the
biggest battle of your life, but now the doctor tells you it’s not over – you haven’t won the battle
yet. The cancer has returned.
Once treatment is completed, many cancer survivors find they have still have issues and concerns
that they did not expect. The one people fear the most is the news that the cancer has come back.
What is cancer recurrence?
Cancer recurrence is defined as the return of cancer after treatment and after a period of time
during which the cancer cannot be detected
. (The length of time is not clearly defined.) The same
cancer may come back where it first started or somewhere else in the body. For example, prostate
cancer may return in the area of the prostate gland (even if the gland was removed), or it may
come back in the bones. In either case it’s a prostate cancer recurrence."

http://www.cancer.org/acs/groups/cid/do ... 47-pdf.pdf
Dx 6/22/2006 IIA rectal cancer
6 wks rad/Xeloda -finished 9/06
1st attempt transanal excision 11/06
11/17/06 XELOX 1 cycle
5 months Xeloda only Dec '06 - April '07
10+ blood clots, 1 DVT 1/07
transanal excision 4/20/07 path-NO CANCER CELLS!
NED now and forever!
Perform random acts of kindness

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betsydoglover
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Location: Maryland - outside DC

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby betsydoglover » Sat Oct 19, 2013 4:57 pm

You're asking about stage 3 (I'm stage 4), but the longer you go, to some extent there is less chance of recurrence. However, there is no end to waiting and watching. We need to keep vigilant and while we can relax a bit, there is no such thing as not having to worry. Even the so called "5 year mark" - it is meaningless to stage 4's. That said, I am fairly calm about my checkups.
Betsy
diag. Stage IV, 5/05, liver met
lap sigmoid colectomy, 6/05
6 cycles Xeloda/oxaliplatin/Avastin (NED after 2)
11/08 9x13mm right lower lobe lung nodule; removed via VATS 4/09
NED
6 cycles Xeloda + Avastin
Avastin only 10/09-5/11
Still NED 06/18

justin case
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Location: Katy, Texas

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby justin case » Sat Oct 19, 2013 5:57 pm

My cancer has not been detected since surgery, although I did 12 more rounds of chemo :roll: I'm coming up on 2 years in February 8)
Regards,
Michael
7/11 diagnosed Stage 2 colon and rectal cancer
chemo/rad
lar/temp ilio
Reversal & port removal
21 round of chemo Folfox 9tx, 5fu 12 tx
Last treatment July 2012

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Bev G
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Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Bev G » Sat Oct 19, 2013 9:44 pm

I have had no new cancer discovered since I was diagnosed in 12/09. At that time I had a 6x5 cm tumor at the rectosigmoid junction and a tangerine sized tumor in the posterior caudate lobe of my liver. 2 of 22 nodes were positive but already burned out (before treatment). Once the metastatic tumor was removed from my liver, I have been NED. It will be 4 years in December. I will not be "cured" unless I continue to be NED until 2019. Unlikely. (sorry to say that, but I AM very, very depressed right now :( )
58 yo Type1 DM 48 years
12/09 Stage IV 2/22 nodes + liver met, colon resec
3 tx FOLFIRI, liver resec 4/10
9/10 6 mos off chemo, Neg PET&CTC CEA nl
2/11 finished total 10 rounds chemo

9/13 ^17th clean PET/CT NED for now

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Bev G
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Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Bev G » Sun Oct 20, 2013 4:18 am

I have an addendum to my depressing last post. Despite what I said, I am optimistic that more and more stage IVs WILL be cured. Right now, most won't be, that is the tragic and pitiful reality. I am fairly confident that by the time I get to my 10 year mark, there will be a cure. The longer we can hang in there, the more likely a cure becomes. And I do absolutely believe that each year in remission increases the likelihood we will stay in remission--I think this is common-sense--however we define starting points: diagnosis date or treatment end dates.

Best to you all. Fight on.

Bev
58 yo Type1 DM 48 years
12/09 Stage IV 2/22 nodes + liver met, colon resec
3 tx FOLFIRI, liver resec 4/10
9/10 6 mos off chemo, Neg PET&CTC CEA nl
2/11 finished total 10 rounds chemo

9/13 ^17th clean PET/CT NED for now

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dianetavegia
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Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby dianetavegia » Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:57 pm

My met showed up just before I reached my 3 year 'all clear'. I was so thrilled to have passed that two year mark and so sure my chances of ever having a met had dropped to zilch.

One thing my onc has told me and I've seen in studies that those who have mets show up later rather than sooner tend to have a better chance of surgery with curative intent (if found while small) than those whose mets appeared in the first year. It is assumed to be a slower growing and less aggressive cancer.

I was given a 68% chance of being alive at 5 years (colon cancer death related death) and 3% chance of dying from something else within those 5 years. NOW, after my liver resection and based on a study completed in 2004, I was given a 71% chance of being alive at 5 years (2017) with higher statistics for those with smaller mets not yet determined.

As Bev mentioned, our 'cure' date is much different from most. No matter how many clear PET/CT scans I have, I will not be considered cured until 2022. I'll be 71.

Researchers at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center at the University of Texas prospectively studied patients with a first solitary liver metastasis who were treated either with hepatic resection or radiofrequency ablation. ….

Present study shows an 80% 3-year survival rate (and a 71% 5-year survival rate) after HR and well-established data showing 10- and 20-year survivors after HR of solitary and multiple metastases, even without adjuvant chemotherapy


Stats are numbers. You're either 100% or 0%.
Last edited by dianetavegia on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stage III cc surgery 1/7/09. 12 tx FOLFOX
Stage IV PET = 1.5cm liver met. HR 4/11/12

11 years since dx and 7 3/4 years post liver resection.
Pronounced CURED and discharged by onc

“O Lord my God, I cried out to You, And You healed me.” Psalms 30:2

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dianetavegia
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duplicate (nt)

Postby dianetavegia » Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:02 pm

Uh Oh....... duplicate.
Stage III cc surgery 1/7/09. 12 tx FOLFOX
Stage IV PET = 1.5cm liver met. HR 4/11/12

11 years since dx and 7 3/4 years post liver resection.
Pronounced CURED and discharged by onc

“O Lord my God, I cried out to You, And You healed me.” Psalms 30:2


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