Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

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Jimswife
Posts: 904
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2011 9:53 am

Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Jimswife » Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:26 am

As per title really .... My husband is now at 2 years post tumor removal , I've heard 80 percent of reccurances happen within 2 years .... As he has reached 2 years have his odds of beating this gone up a little ? ....I'm well aware that a reccurance can happen anytime but in general is his outlook better now ? Thanks to anyone who can advise . So grateful to have reached this milestone cancer free .
Victoria , Wife to Jim age 43 dx oct 2011
Stage 3 cc with 2 out of 21 positive lymph nodes
Folfox starts nov 11-may 12
All scans and bloods since surgery confirm no evidence of disease
Hoping to stay ned forever .... Fingers crossed !!!!!!!

janderson
Posts: 679
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:46 am

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby janderson » Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:41 am

That is what I was told by my first oncologist that most recurrences happen within the first 2 years. I have had 2 recurrences. One happened after 1 1/2 years. The second one happened 4 years after the first recurrence so that is 50% in my case.
DX 10-05 stage IV
liver resection 12-05 Folfox1-05 to 7-06
Liver resection 8-07 Folfiri 9-07 to 3-08
Liver resection 12-11
Recurrence 2/7/2014, liver, chestwall mets, 16 rounds chemo
7/3/14, y90 radioembolization, steady shrinkage
12/8/14, cryoablation to liver and chest wall
6/1 to 6/26 SBRT radio surgery
7/2 more cryo ablation to right lung
7/16 lung infection drain tube installed
9/4 chest wall resection to remove 2 ribs

lydia123
Posts: 771
Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 11:23 am

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby lydia123 » Thu Oct 17, 2013 11:28 am

More than a little. From what we have read, the probability of a recurrence for Stage III increases for two years, with the modal year of recurrence in year 2. Thereafter, the rate of recurrence decreases rather dramatically (with most recurrences taking place before the end of the third year out) until at 5 years it approaches population rates.

As my husband's doctor put it: at 3 years you have a party. At 5 years you rent a tent.
lydia123
caregiver to husband dx stage III colon/rectal cancer 5/10
6/10 surgery
7/10: FOLFOX began -- became nausea management expert
12/10: Chemo-radiation ended, scans clean.
NED since, but some scans required follow-up

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Jimswife
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Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2011 9:53 am

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Jimswife » Thu Oct 17, 2013 11:47 am

Husband just said he's seen somewhere that post two year survival goes up to 89.9 percent at 5 years .... As opposed to the 70 percent we were originally told at the beginning ....time will tell x
Victoria , Wife to Jim age 43 dx oct 2011
Stage 3 cc with 2 out of 21 positive lymph nodes
Folfox starts nov 11-may 12
All scans and bloods since surgery confirm no evidence of disease
Hoping to stay ned forever .... Fingers crossed !!!!!!!

Oneeyeddog
Posts: 101
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2013 11:06 am

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Oneeyeddog » Thu Oct 17, 2013 1:00 pm

My oncologist quoted me the same 2 years 80 percent stat. Like everything with cancer, you don't want to jinx it by over-celebrating, but statistically as least getting to two years seems to be a really great milestone.
Colon cancer Stage 3c (dx April 2013) at age 36
Resection and temp ileostomy (4/17)
12 rounds of FOLFOX (May-Oct 2013)
NED (August 2014)
http://www.theoneeyeddog.com

robinkaye
Posts: 374
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:03 am

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby robinkaye » Thu Oct 17, 2013 2:32 pm

After two years every year you remain NED increases your chances of staying that way.
You aren't completely over the hump, but two years NED puts you a lot closer...feel good and enjoy. It's probably
time to quit holding your breath and relax a little. The closer my husband gets to two years the better I feel. I know it can still strike again after two years, not delusional, but the odds are increasingly better that it won't.
Husband has RC Stage IIIC
Chemorad 9/28-11/07
2 rounds FOLFOX to get rid of iliac LN
LAR Surgery 1/17 ileostomy
presacral abscess 2/1 - 3/27
FOLFOX began 4/5 - 6/15
another presacral abscess 6/30-8/10
Reversal 9/11
10/15 fistula with drain

michelle c
Posts: 1914
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:58 am

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby michelle c » Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:10 pm

Yes and yes! My onc told me this. I try and avoid stats on the Internet. I was obsessed with doing this when I was first diagnosed and it did me more harm than good :) All the best to Jim, may he remain NED!
25 May 09 Dx with CC (sigmoid colon) 2 days after my 44th b'day
CEA prior to surgery 4.7
3 Jun 09 LAR - Stage III 3/10 lymph nodes
6 Jul - 10 Dec 09 12 cycles FOLFIRI
Genetic testing - inconclusive for Lynch
Jul 12 port removed & hernia repair

weisssoccermom
Posts: 5976
Joined: Thu May 10, 2007 2:32 pm
Location: Pacific NW

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby weisssoccermom » Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:35 pm

Well, you're partially correct but.....

The statistics show that IF a person is going to have a recurrence, then it tends to happen in the first two years. And yes, again IF a recurrence is going to occur, statistics show that 80% of them recur in the first two years. After that, stats show that another 10% occur between year 2-3 with another 5% occurring in year 4 with the remainder being insignificant. That does not, however, correlate with or to survival statistics - they are two entirely different things and must be kept separate.

In addition, a big hurdle with all these statistics is this. Generally, the survival statistics 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the FIRST treatment - be that surgery, radiation or chemotherapy. The recurrence 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the LAST treatment. Again, two different statistics with different parameters.
Jaynee
Dx 6/22/2006 IIA rectal cancer
6 wks rad/Xeloda -finished 9/06
1st attempt transanal excision 11/06
11/17/06 XELOX 1 cycle
5 months Xeloda only Dec '06 - April '07
10+ blood clots, 1 DVT 1/07
transanal excision 4/20/07 path-NO CANCER CELLS!
NED now and forever!
Perform random acts of kindness

kiwiinoz
Posts: 1156
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 11:44 pm

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby kiwiinoz » Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:37 am

Clear concise response as always Jaynee, appreciate it very much and it certainly does make me reconsider a few mental positions I had
Stage IV Rectal Cancer (39 Year old male at dx)
pT3N0M1 (wish that was M0)
Diagnosed 05 Dec 2012
LAR 05 Jan 2013
VATS 27 Feb 2013
FOLOFX April 2013 - Sep 2013
Clear Scan 03 Dec 2013 - 22 May 2019
Port Out 26 March 2015

Oneeyeddog
Posts: 101
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2013 11:06 am

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Oneeyeddog » Fri Oct 18, 2013 5:35 am

Generally, the survival statistics 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the FIRST treatment - be that surgery, radiation or chemotherapy. The recurrence 'clock' starts ticking from the date of the LAST treatment. Again, two different statistics with different parameters.


Thanks for clarifying this point. I had always wondered about this.
Colon cancer Stage 3c (dx April 2013) at age 36
Resection and temp ileostomy (4/17)
12 rounds of FOLFOX (May-Oct 2013)
NED (August 2014)
http://www.theoneeyeddog.com

pog451
Posts: 799
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:11 am
Facebook Username: andrew.morgan

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby pog451 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:05 am

weisssoccermom wrote:That does not, however, correlate with or to survival statistics - they are two entirely different things and must be kept separate.

Well, you're partially correct but.....

Obviously, some of the people that don't make it are some of the people who have an occurrence (no-one dies of NED) so there *is* a correlation, its just a more complicated one and Im not at all sure there are numbers easily available for "was NED, had a recurrence, survived anyway".

As always, never take stats at face value without understanding the underlying statements.
09.11 Dx @ 46, uT3uN1M0 G2
11.11 radio+Xeloda
01.12 LAR
03.12 Xeloda
09.12 Liver mets, 2 LN
09.12 Folfox+Avastin
02.13 Resection
04.13 Folfox & Avastin
11.13 Local recurrence
02-07.14 FOLFIRINOX
08.14 Re-rediation
Left us 28.05.2015

radnyc
Posts: 439
Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2010 6:32 pm

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby radnyc » Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:44 am

My understanding is that there are no real hard studies showing on when exactly the countdown clock starts. Some think is from the time of DX, others from the time of the first NED scan or from the end of the last treatment. It seems logical that if one has continuing CLEAR scans over one, two or three years, the recurrence risk significantly decreases. Also, as there is no real agreement on whether adjuvant chemotherapy adds anything to survival, specially in early stages, a lot of people who are long-term NED and cured, were so from the moment the tumor was removed. The longer one is NED and off any treatment the chances of recurrence decrease, statistically at 5 yrs NED, one's chance having cancer, new or recurrent, matches that of the general population.
DX Jan '10, at 47
Feb - colon resection - 2/17 nodes
April - liver mets - Stage 4
3 months Folfox chemotherapy
August '10 liver resection and HAI pump
7 months chemo FUDR HAI and Folfiri systemic
NED since August 2010
Last treatment April '11
HAI Pump removed Dec '15

MrPleistocene
Posts: 263
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:04 pm
Facebook Username: vinson.jim
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby MrPleistocene » Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:30 pm

My belief, totally unscientific, is that every day I make it through, increases the chance I'll make it through tomorrow.

Every night I put my son to bed with a song we wrote together:

A brand new day
Tomorrow's gonna be a brand new day
The rain may fall or come what may
Tomorrow's gonna be a brand new day

Congratulations to both of you, and I hope each day brings more peace than the last.
DX 11/09 RC Stage IIIb
12/09 Chemorad w/Folfox
Surgery 4/10 LAR, Removed Seminal Vesicles
Clean Margins, T3N2M0, 4/19 Nodes
FOLFOX 6/10-11/10
6/10, 10/10, 1/11 Clean Scans, Normal CEA
12/10 Bi-Nephrostomy
12/10-2/11 HBOT
2/11 Reversal

janderson
Posts: 679
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:46 am

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby janderson » Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:33 pm

MrPleistocene wrote:My belief, totally unscientific, is that every day I make it through, increases the chance I'll make it through tomorrow.

Every night I put my son to bed with a song we wrote together:

A brand new day
Tomorrow's gonna be a brand new day
The rain may fall or come what may
Tomorrow's gonna be a brand new day

Congratulations to both of you, and I hope each day brings more peace than the last.


That is so true. The way I look at it every day I wake up is another victory and a day closer to a breakthrough treatment being discovered and approved.
DX 10-05 stage IV
liver resection 12-05 Folfox1-05 to 7-06
Liver resection 8-07 Folfiri 9-07 to 3-08
Liver resection 12-11
Recurrence 2/7/2014, liver, chestwall mets, 16 rounds chemo
7/3/14, y90 radioembolization, steady shrinkage
12/8/14, cryoablation to liver and chest wall
6/1 to 6/26 SBRT radio surgery
7/2 more cryo ablation to right lung
7/16 lung infection drain tube installed
9/4 chest wall resection to remove 2 ribs

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Bob Bones
Posts: 162
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 2:32 pm
Facebook Username: markcooper1968@btinternet.com
Location: UK

Re: Does survival rate increase a little at 2 years ?

Postby Bob Bones » Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:39 pm

Truth is you are never out of the woods. Previous posts sadly confirm this
Sigmoid Tumor 5cm T(3) , 11/23 nodes
Stage IIIC at age 37, Poorly differentiated
Surgery 23/01/06 ( Laparoscopic )
Converted to Formal because of my anatomy!
6 months of Xeloda
NED 10 years (touch wood)
Lynch Syndrome MSH2


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