when does recurrence usually occur

[tom]

Hello,
My father was diagnosed with stage 3 A colon cancer 2 years ago. It affected 1 lymph node and would have been stage 1 if the lymph node was not affected. I was wondering if a recurrence should happen usually what year is it most likely to come back in. I know the target is year 5 but I get worried that it could happen soon. Please respond!

[john36]

I really am not sure what the protocal for this is. Your at the right site though. I am sure someone may have some stats on this. It seems that your dads stage is somewhat early. Do not stress all that much about it.

[john36]

I really am not sure what the protocal for this is. Your at the right site though. I am sure someone may have some stats on this. It seems that your dads stage is somewhat early. Do not stress all that much about it.

[Ron50]

Hi Tom,
My surgeon considered thefirst 18 mos as the critical period usually for a recurrence in the same area . The remainder of the 5 years is where they worry about mets appearing at distant sites . There is one school of thought that mets are embryotic in nature and that at least three to five ca cells need to congregate in one area before the start to form a secondary. I don't know how valid the theory is but it would explain why chemo does work in some cases. I had 6 nodes involved ,had a year of chem and have been clear for nine years .
Good luck to you and your dad ,Ron.

[Magnolia]

My understanding is most recurrances happen in the first 18 to 24 months. People who have not had a recurrance after 5 years probably will not ever have a recurrance of the same tumor, but are still at risk for a new cancer, whether it's a new colon lesion or another type of cancer.

[guest]

I spent a lot of time researching this. I was also dx stage IIIA in October 2006. I have been NED since, but worry about the recurrence -- especially when reading that only about 50% of Stage III people are recurrence free!
However, the GREAT news is that under the 6th Edition Joint Cancer Commission changes...Stage IIIA has an 83% 5 year survival rate!
About the recurrence rates....
"The research team headed by Dr. Daniel J. Sargent, believes that the study provides evidence for using three-year disease free survival as a surrogate measure for overall survival.......80% of recurrences occurred within the first 3 years and 91% of the patients who had cancer return within 3 years had died by the 5-year mark. In the pooled data: 12% of recurrences happened in the first year, 14% in the second, 8% in the 3rd, 5% in the fourth and 3% in the 5th year."

[margotmagoo]

I was told that making it to the 2 year mark was good but that 3 years without a recurrence was the desirable number. My onco said that I had a 20% chance of a recurrence. I will be a 1 year survivor on Jan. 20th. Sounds like your dad is getting there! Living in limbo is not fun but as long as he is being monitered, that is all that can be done.

[tom]

Thank you all. This sure does ease the mind some. You all are great. Good luck and I will keep you in my prayers.

[suzy]

Here's a link to an article with alot of info:

http://www.jco.org/cgi/content/abstract/23/34/8664

[suzannchili]

As a stage 3, 6 year survivor, I was told an 80% chance of recurrence in the first 3 years if it was going to happen at all. 20% after that. Hope this helps.

[Magnolia]

>>I spent a lot of time researching this. I was also dx stage IIIA in October 2006. I have been NED since, but worry about the recurrence -- especially when reading that only about 50% of Stage III people are recurrence free! <<

I haven't heard that. I heard that it was 50% without chemo, (surgery alone) and closer to 60 to 70% with agressive treatment.

[eitter]

I am stage II to III, it is a strange case, but we are not sure about node involvement, they were clear after radiation.

My doctors like to say I am III and I like to say I am II.

I went to Sloan Kettering and saw an awesome Dr. there Deborah Schrag and she said if someone is Stage III they have a 50/50 chance with no Chemo and if they do Chemo an addtl 20%, so up to 70% of no reoccurance. My Oncologist in Arizona concured with those statements.

If someone is Stage II I have read it raises your unlikelyhood of only 5% if you take Chemo.

So this concurs with what Magnolia just said too.

God Bless,

[ASTEPHENS33]

There is a database that collects statistics on survival and relapse rates for patients using adjunctive therapies for breast and colon cancer - https://www.adjuvantonline.com Its what my oncologist used. I was also Stage IIIA. Without chemo, the chances of being alive in 5 years was about 85% and with chemo (which I completed about 8 months ago) it was 90%.